Bayan Resources coal production regulatory uncertainty

PT Bayan Resources Tbk declared force majeure on September 14, 2026, due to delays in obtaining approvals for the 2026 Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) changes for its subsidiaries, including PT Tiwa Abadi, PT Tanur Jaya, and PT Fajar Sakti Prima. The company reported to the Financial Services Authority (OJK) that these approvals are necessary for legal coal production and that the inability to secure them prevents the fulfillment of existing Coal Supply Agreements.

Following this declaration, Moody’s Ratings revised the outlook for Bayan Resources from stable to negative, while maintaining its corporate family rating at Ba1. The revision is attributed to regulatory uncertainty regarding coal production quota allocations in Indonesia. Moody’s estimates that without revised production quota approvals, the company’s 2026 production could fall to approximately 39 million metric tons, a notable decrease from the 68 million metric tons estimated for 2025. While the company maintains a debt-free balance sheet, the uncertainty regarding annual quotas poses risks to production growth and long-term capacity goals.