Morena leads in 2027 polls but faces uncertainty in Chamber of Deputies

Recent polling and political analysis suggest that while the Morena party maintains a lead in national preferences for the 2027 elections, this does not guarantee a supermajority in the Chamber of Deputies. A study by Buendía & Márquez shows Morena with a 35% raw preference, which rises to 48% when excluding non-respondents, compared to 11% for PAN and 9% each for PRI and Movimiento Ciudadano.

Experts note that national polling cannot accurately predict the distribution of the 500 seats in the Chamber, as 300 are decided by relative majority in specific districts. The final outcome will depend on district-level performance and the strength of alliances between Morena and its partners, the PT and Verde.

Former Social Development Secretary Rosario Robles has expressed the view that Morena may lose its qualified majority in 2027. Robles suggested that opposition parties could gain ground in the Chamber of Deputies if they successfully form coalitions and present unified candidates in various districts. She also emphasized the importance of defending electoral results through official tallies, anticipating that many election results may be challenged in court.