Morgan Stanley predicts earnings upside for Greece's top banks

Morgan Stanley expects Greek banks to post stronger second‑quarter earnings than the market consensus, upgrading profit forecasts and keeping an Overweight stance on the sector. The firm highlights rapid credit expansion – new loan issuance rose about 40% quarter‑on‑quarter and 16% year‑on‑year in April‑May – and a 7.4% annual increase in total loan balances, supporting higher net interest income.

Piraeus Bank and Eurobank are singled out as the top picks, each given an Overweight recommendation with price targets of €11.30 and €4.90 respectively. Alpha Bank, National Bank and CrediaBank are rated Equal‑weight. Morgan Stanley notes a supportive macro environment, strong demand for business loans, and that term deposits now account for 23% of total deposits, raising funding costs but not undermining the sector outlook.