Mortgage rates remain elevated despite moderating inflation

Mortgage rates remain elevated despite recent moderating inflation reports. As of August 18, 2026, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.53%, according to Zillow. Other rates include a 15-year fixed rate at 5.94% and a 5/1 ARM at approximately 6.39%.

While recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data came in at or below consensus—reducing the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September—mortgage rates have not seen a significant drop. Market sentiment suggests a 65% probability that the Fed will stand pat, according to CME FedWatch.

Economic volatility, including geopolitical tensions that impacted oil prices, has contributed to fluctuating rates. Although rates eased slightly following favorable inflation news, they remain near 52-week highs, with some experts predicting 30-year fixed rates could settle between 6.4% and 6.5% by 2026.