Mortgage rates rise as Fannie Mae raises long-term forecasts

Mortgage rates have seen an upward trend, with the 30-year fixed rate reaching 6.70% on August 20, 2026. This represents an increase from the previous day's 6.67% and follows a steady climb from a 30-day low of 6.51%. The 15-year fixed rate is currently at 6.02%, while the 5/1 ARM stands at 6.43%.

Fannie Mae has significantly revised its long-term mortgage rate forecasts upward. The organization now predicts that 30-year fixed mortgage rates will average 6.8% in the fourth quarter of 2026 and maintain that level through the first half of 2027. This is a notable shift from its July outlook, which had projected lower averages of 6.4% through 2026 and even a decline to 6.2% by late 2027.

Analysts suggest several factors are driving these higher rates, including rising oil prices contributing to inflationary concerns and rising bond yields. Additionally, the increase in the national debt, which has surpassed $40 trillion, is expected to keep bond yields elevated, making it difficult for mortgage rates to decrease significantly.