El Nino forecast heightens flood and drought risk in China and India

State media in China reported that a strong to super‑strong eastern Pacific El Nino is expected to develop this summer and autumn, raising the likelihood of extreme weather such as flooding, heatwaves, drought and typhoons across the country. Sea‑surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific have risen sharply, with the El Nino index reaching 1.60 °C. The National Climate Centre warned of heavier rainfall in southern China and higher temperatures nationwide, increasing flood risk in the Yangtze River basin and drought risk in north‑west regions, which could affect major grain‑producing areas.

In India, the southwest monsoon showed a surplus of rainfall in July, cutting the overall deficit to 15.2 % after a deficit of nearly 40 % in June. Central India moved from a 50 % deficiency to a 4 % surplus, but eastern and north‑eastern states still face a 39 % shortfall. Despite the rain boost, sowing of kharif crops remains well below last year’s levels, prompting officials to advise farmers to shift to less water‑intensive crops and to activate contingency plans in vulnerable districts.

Forecasts from the World Meteorological Organization and the India Meteorological Department indicate that the El Nino will intensify drought and heavy‑rain risks, with July expected to receive only about 94 % of the long‑period average rainfall. The Indian government has reviewed preparedness measures, updating District Agriculture Contingency Plans for 262 districts.

Mumbai continued to experience heavy to very heavy showers on July 8, accompanied by strong winds of 60‑70 km/h and a high tide of 3.77 m. The Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation denied rumors of school closures, confirmed that local train services have resumed, and urged residents to stay alert for possible water‑logging and flood‑related hazards.