started · updated
NASA data suggests 2026 El Niño may rival 1997 record
NASA satellite data indicates that the 2026 El Niño event is tracking similarly to the historic 1997-98 and 2015-16 phenomena, with the potential to surpass previous records. Ocean altimetry from the Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich satellite shows sea level rises in the central and eastern Pacific that mirror the patterns seen during the 1997 event.
While the current cycle began later than previous major events, the development has accelerated due to wind bursts triggering Kelvin waves. The NOAA Climate Prediction Center estimates an 83 percent probability that a strong to very strong El Niño will persist through the January-March 2027 period. There is also an 83 percent chance that the intensity of the October-December period will exceed all El Niño events recorded since 1950.
Historically, intense El Niño events have caused significant global disruptions, including wildfires in Indonesia and the Amazon, droughts in southern Africa, and heavy flooding in California. In the United States, El Niño typically shifts the jet stream southward, often leading to wetter conditions in the southern states and the Rocky Mountains, while northern regions may experience warmer, drier winters.
Entities
Amazon · California · Indonesia · Josh Willis · NASA · NOAA Climate Prediction Center · Pacific Ocean · Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich
Claims
What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.
- [● 2 SOURCES] Past intense El Niño events caused wildfires in Indonesia and the Amazon. actualidad-rt.com · primicia.com.ve
- [○ 1 SOURCE] El Niño typically causes the jet stream to shift southward across North America during winter. www.haberaktuel.com
- [○ 1 SOURCE] There is an 83 percent chance the October-December intensity will exceed all El Niño events recorded since 1950. dijitaliyidir.com
- [● 2 SOURCES] El Niño events occur approximately every two to seven years. actualidad-rt.com · primicia.com.ve
- [○ 1 SOURCE] The 2026 El Niño event started later than previous major events but has caught up quickly. dijitaliyidir.com
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Sea level rises in the central and eastern Pacific are being measured by the Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich satellite. dijitaliyidir.com
- [○ 1 SOURCE] There is an 83 percent probability that a strong to very strong El Niño will last until the January-March 2027 period. dijitaliyidir.com
- [● 3 SOURCES] The 2026 El Niño event is showing similarities to the 1997-98 and 2015-16 events. dijitaliyidir.com · actualidad-rt.com · primicia.com.ve