National Retail Federation forecasts 4.2% rise in holiday spending

The National Retail Federation (NRF) projects that retail sales during the holiday season will increase by 4.2% compared to 2025. This growth comes despite economic challenges such as persistent inflation, higher interest rates, elevated consumer debt, and rising gas prices.

Economists note a “K-shaped” distribution in this spending pattern, where higher earners drive the overall increase while economic turbulence disproportionately affects lower-income consumers. Last year, holiday sales rose 3.1% to a total of $972 billion.

To meet anticipated demand, retailers are expected to hire between 325,000 and 375,000 seasonal workers. The NRF forecast focuses on core retail, excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations, and restaurants.