Nickel Market Outlook 2026: Oversupply Persists, Prices Stable

Global nickel supplies are projected to remain in surplus through 2026, driven by high output from Indonesia and weak demand from manufacturing and battery sectors. Prices have fluctuated between US$17,000 and US$18,800 per metric ton this year, with recent lows around US$16,830 and brief spikes above US$18,000. Analysts note that Indonesia’s shift to a one‑year mining quota has only modestly steadied the market and is unlikely to lift prices without a larger cut, as the forecast surplus stands at roughly 261,000 MT for 2026.

Separately, the nickel‑oxide segment is expected to see demand reach 2.6 million tons by 2030, mainly for battery applications. Over 40 % of produced nickel oxide is used in agriculture and forestry equipment, serving as catalysts, protective coatings and components for rural energy systems. The material’s role in emission‑control and smart‑farming technologies is highlighted as a growing driver of its market relevance.