Nigeria Boosts Energy Production and Domestic Refining Under Tinubu Reforms

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration has lifted fuel subsidies and reformed the exchange rate, restoring fiscal credibility and lifting total federal revenue to about ₦21 trillion in 2024, nearly double the ₦12 trillion recorded in 2023. The reforms have driven a surge in domestic fuel processing, with local petrol output rising to roughly 48 million litres per day – the first time in a generation that most of Nigeria’s gasoline is produced at home – and petrol imports falling from about ₦2.3 trillion in early 2025 to under ₦90 billion a year later.

Crude oil and condensate production averaged 1.64 million barrels per day in 2025, up roughly 400,000 bpd since 2023 and marking the highest onshore output in two decades. Over US$4 billion in divestments by international oil companies have been concluded, boosting indigenous participation, while pipeline uptime remains high and illegal refining has sharply declined. Contracting times for projects have been cut from 36 to around 14 months, with a target of six months. Nigeria’s share of African upstream final investment decisions rose from about 4 % pre‑2023 to roughly 40 % across 2024‑2025, backed by about US$10 billion in commitments and a pipeline of roughly US$50 billion of projects.