Nigeria oil revenue projected to plunge 60% from 2030

A report by the E3G think tank warns that Nigeria’s oil revenue could plunge by more than 60 per cent starting from 2030. This projected decline is driven by a global shift toward renewable energy and electric vehicles, which is expected to cause global crude oil demand to peak in the early 2030s.

Nigeria is identified as particularly vulnerable due to its heavy reliance on oil income and limited economic diversification. The report suggests that as demand shrinks, producers with higher costs and less advanced infrastructure will struggle more than low-cost producers like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

Co-author Beth Walker noted that governments are currently unprepared for these outcomes, stating, “The transition becomes riskier for everyone when oil producers are left to adjust on their own and oil markets are left to manage themselves. Producer fragility becomes a global security risk.” The loss of revenue could hinder the ability of affected nations to fund public services and service debts, potentially leading to fiscal crises and security implications.