Nigeria's Economy Holds 4.1% Growth Forecast Amid Rising Poverty Risks

The International Monetary Fund kept Nigeria’s 2026 growth projection at 4.1% and 2027 at 4.3%, noting that improved macro‑economic stability and favourable terms‑of‑trade are offset by higher prices for food and energy, which could push more households into poverty and aggravate food insecurity. The IMF also lowered its global growth outlook to 3.0% for 2026 and warned that global headline inflation will rise to 4.7% that year.

Separately, foreign direct investment in Nigeria more than doubled to roughly $4 billion, driven mainly by oil‑and‑gas project financing and an expanding tech‑startup ecosystem. At the same time, Nigeria’s foreign‑exchange reserves climbed to about $51 billion, a record high, though analysts stress that about 95% of the recent inflows are short‑term portfolio funds that could exit quickly.

These developments come as global oil prices surged over 8% after the United States ended a cease‑fire agreement with Iran, a move that could affect Nigeria’s oil‑export revenues. Overall, the mixed signals highlight both renewed investor confidence and persistent vulnerability to commodity price shocks and domestic inflation pressures.