El Niño phenomenon projected to reach historic intensity in late 2026

El Niño climate change ocean warming weather forecasting extreme weather

Meteorological agencies, including NOAA and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), are warning of an exceptionally strong El Niño phenomenon. Projections indicate a high probability of a historic event, with NOAA estimating a 75% chance of record-breaking intensity between October and December 2026, potentially surpassing any event recorded since 1950.

There is a greater than 90% probability that the episode will be classified as very strong, with impacts potentially lasting until February 2027. Sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 zone have already shown significant warming, with some areas recording temperatures more than 8°C above normal.

The global consequences are expected to be widespread, including shifts in precipitation and temperature patterns. In Brazil, the phenomenon is anticipated to increase rainfall in the South, while other regions may face irregular weather. In Central America, the effects have already contributed to crop destruction in the Dry Corridor. Additionally, researchers from the University Complutense de Madrid have identified that Atlantic Ocean patterns may offer a new window for improving El Niño prediction accuracy.

Entities

Atlantic Ocean · Celeste Saulo · NOAA · National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration · Pacific Ocean · World Meteorological Organization

Claims

What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.

[○ 1 SOURCE] Researchers from the University Complutense de Madrid found that Atlantic Ocean patterns can help predict El Niño. www.ilmeteo.net
[○ 1 SOURCE] The WMO suggests the phenomenon could persist until February 2027. www.vosactualites.com
[○ 1 SOURCE] El Niño has caused crop destruction in Central America's Dry Corridor. canaln.pe
[○ 1 SOURCE] Sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 zone reached between 2.2°C and 2.6°C above average in mid-August. www.vosactualites.com
[DISPUTED] NOAA estimates a 75% probability of a historic El Niño event between October and December 2026. www.spacemoney.com.br · www.opresente.com.br · revistaforum.com.br
[● 2 SOURCES] NOAA estimates a greater than 90% probability of a very strong El Niño during the 2026/2027 period. www.spacemoney.com.br · canaln.pe
[○ 1 SOURCE] The WMO predicts an exceptional El Niño episode. www.vosactualites.com
[● 2 SOURCES] In Brazil, El Niño is expected to increase rainfall in the South region. www.spacemoney.com.br · www.opresente.com.br