Oceanic phenomena El Niño and IOD to influence winter weather

Two significant oceanic phenomena, a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and a strengthening Super El Niño in the Pacific Ocean, are expected to influence global weather patterns through the 2026/2027 winter.

The positive IOD phase is characterized by the warming of the western Indian Ocean and the cooling of its eastern part. This temperature contrast alters wind patterns, precipitation distribution, and the movement of large atmospheric systems. Current data suggests this phase is developing and could persist through autumn and into early winter.

Simultaneously, a powerful Super El Niño is intensifying in the central and eastern Pacific. Sea temperatures in these regions are recorded at four to five degrees Celsius above average, with some depths up to 500 meters showing temperatures eight degrees above normal. The combined effect of these two phenomena may impact air currents across the northern hemisphere, potentially shaping weather conditions globally for the upcoming seasons.