started · updated
Strait of Hormuz tensions drive up global oil price forecasts
Oil prices are rising due to ongoing maritime restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has raised its 2026 forecast for Brent crude to $87 per barrel, up from $82, and increased its retail gasoline forecast to an average of $3.78 per gallon this year.
While President Donald Trump stated the Strait is “open now,” maritime intelligence firm Kpler reported that only eight ships passed through on Monday, significantly lower than the pre-war average of 120. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright noted that approximately 9 million barrels of oil passed through the waterway in a single week, but overall transit remains constrained.
Iran has declared that the Strait will remain closed until the United States meets its demands or until the end of the current U.S. administration in 2029. This geopolitical tension, combined with U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve levels hitting a 43-year low, has pushed Brent crude to briefly exceed $90 per barrel.
Entities
Chris Wright · Donald Trump · Federal Reserve · Iran · Iran · Strait of Hormuz · U.S. Energy Information Administration · United States
Claims
What the coverage asserts, and how well corroborated each claim is across sources.
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Only eight ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, compared to a pre-war average of 120 ships. arabic.cnn.com
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Approximately 9 million barrels of oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz during a one-week period. www.elbalad.news
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Energy transit through the Strait of Hormuz is expected to remain limited until the end of August. arabic.cnn.com
- [○ 1 SOURCE] The EIA raised its 2026 Brent crude oil price forecast to $87 per barrel from $82 per barrel. arabic.cnn.com
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Brent crude oil rose 1% on Tuesday, briefly exceeding $90 per barrel. www.europesays.com
- [● 2 SOURCES] The Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until the United States meets its demands or until the end of Donald Trump's term in 2029. www.europesays.com · www.elbalad.news
- [○ 1 SOURCE] The EIA raised its forecast for retail gasoline to an average of $3.78 per gallon this year, up from $3.64. arabic.cnn.com
- [○ 1 SOURCE] U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve stocks declined to their lowest levels in 43 years last week. www.europesays.com