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[POLITICS] · Australia · 12 sources

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Part of situation: One Nation party rise and shifting Australian political tide (78 clusters)

One Nation leads polls, threatens Nationals' rural seats in Australia

One Nation surge Australian federal election National Party seats Queensland primary vote regional electorates

One Nation leader Pauline Hanson addressed the National Press Club in Canberra on June 17. A DemosAU model based on a survey of 9,343 voters between May and July projects the party ahead in 39 of the 41 regional and rural electorates. Monte‑Carlo simulations of 20,000 runs forecast a federal election outcome of 60‑72 Labor seats, 53‑66 One Nation seats and 11‑22 Coalition seats, with the Liberals winning 11‑20 and the Nationals only zero to two seats.

The analysis identifies several Nationals‑held seats as vulnerable, including Maranoa, Riverina, Parkes, Flynn, Capricornia, Hinkler, Cowper, Dawson, Lyne and Wide Bay. One Nation’s primary vote is strongest in Queensland at 34%, leading in 20 of the state’s 30 seats, and it also leads in outer‑metropolitan areas such as Brisbane, Perth, and outer Sydney and Melbourne with about 30% versus Labor’s 28%. Research chief George Hasanakos said the Coalition’s best remaining chances are south of the Murray River and in the Division of Page, held by Kevin Hogan. The modelling suggests a hung Parliament could result if an election were called now.

Entities

Australian Labor Party · DemosAU · George Hasanakos · Kevin Hogan · National Party of Australia · One Nation · Pauline Hanson

Claims

What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.

Sources

Why Nationals are moving to challenge for Farrer only months after by-election [www.bordermail.com.au]
Introducing Casey Iddon: Independent candidate for Wide Bay - Pineapple [thepineapple.net.au]
One Nation surge: Nationals wipeout predicted across rural, regional areas [www.northqueenslandregister.com.au]
Why Nationals are moving to challenge for Farrer only months after byelection [www.areanews.com.au]
One Nation surge: Nationals wipeout predicted across rural, regional areas [www.stockjournal.com.au]
One Nation surge: Nationals wipeout predicted across rural, regional areas [www.theland.com.au]
‘Would last about 30 seconds’: Burke rubbishes Hanson’s counter-terror bid [www.smh.com.au]
One Nation surge: Nationals wipeout predicted across rural, regional areas [www.dailyadvertiser.com.au]
One Nation surge: Nationals wipeout predicted across rural, regional areas [www.farmonline.com.au]
‘Would last about 30 seconds’: Burke rubbishes Hanson’s counter-terror bid [www.watoday.com.au]
‘Would last about 30 seconds’: Burke rubbishes Hanson’s counter-terror bid [www.brisbanetimes.com.au]
‘Would last about 30 seconds’: Burke rubbishes Hanson’s counter-terror bid [www.theage.com.au]