Pacific El Niño event threatens to reach historic levels

A powerful El Niño event is developing in the tropical Pacific, with researchers and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) warning of potentially historic impacts. There is a high probability—estimated between 75% and over 90%—that this event will be stronger than comparable phases recorded since 1950.

El Niño involves the abnormal warming of surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, which disrupts global air currents and precipitation patterns. Expected consequences include droughts in Africa, Oceania, and South Asia, as well as the potential collapse of the monsoon season in the Indian subcontinent. In the Northern Hemisphere, Western Europe may experience wetter, colder, and stormier conditions.

To better understand these mechanisms, NOAA is deploying four autonomous Saildrones—seven-meter-long unmanned surface vehicles equipped with meteorological and oceanographic sensors. These drones will collect data on water temperature, salinity, carbon dioxide, and ocean currents in hard-to-reach areas of the Pacific for approximately five months. Scientists note that the warming effect is occurring from a high baseline driven by human-induced climate change, potentially exacerbating extreme weather events.