Pakistan avoids water shortage as floods offset India's suspension of the Indus Treaty

India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty after the April 2025 Pahalgam terror attack, prompting Pakistani authorities to project a water deficit of up to 21 percent for the crucial Kharif 2025 cropping season. The shortfall was expected to hit Punjab and Sindh, where irrigation depends heavily on the Jhelum‑Chenab system.

In August 2025, rapid snowmelt in the upper Indus basin and severe floods boosted river inflows by about 18 percent—122.36 million acre‑feet versus the forecast 104.03 million—filling major reservoirs to roughly 99 percent of capacity and averting the anticipated crisis. Officials noted the “crisis created by India short supplies in Chenab River”.

Nevertheless, Pakistan’s key Tarbela reservoir has lost nearly half of its original live storage capacity due to sediment accumulation, now holding about 5.7 million acre‑feet, down from 9.68 million. The depletion threatens future irrigation, electricity generation, and drought management, prompting continued warnings from water authorities.