Panama braces for strong El Niño with reduced rains and soaring temperatures

Panama’s meteorological institute (IMHPA) warned that a strong El Niño will bring a markedly drier and hotter second half of 2026. Forecasts show a national rainfall deficit of up to 55% between July and December and an increase of 1 °C to 3 °C in air temperature, raising heat‑index values toward 42 °C in some areas.

Director Luz Graciela de Calzadilla said the Pacific sea‑surface temperature is 1.7 °C above normal, placing the event in the “strong” category, with a 60‑65 % chance of intensifying to a “very strong” El Niño by November‑January. The phenomenon will shift precipitation from the Pacific coast to the Caribbean side and produce erratic weather, including short, intense downpours, lightning and multi‑day dry spells. The dry “arc” of southern Veraguas, Herrera, Los Santos and part of Coclé has already experienced prolonged dry periods, such as 14 consecutive rainless days in Pedasí.

The agency highlighted potential impacts on water supply and hydro‑electric power, which accounts for about two‑thirds of the country’s energy mix, and urged water‑saving measures and heightened preparedness across agricultural and energy sectors. Historically, similar El Niño cycles have lasted nine to eighteen months, suggesting the current episode could persist into mid‑2027.