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Raquel Lyra and João Campos tied in Pernambuco governor race
A Datafolha poll released on 31 July 2026 shows the incumbent governor Raquel Lyra (PSD) with 49 % and former Recife mayor João Campos (PSB) with 45 % in a simulated second‑round for the Pernambuco governorship, a technical tie within the three‑point margin of error. In the first‑round scenario the same poll records Lyra at 48 % and Campos at 42 %, also at the edge of the margin.
A Real Time Big Data survey conducted between 27 and 30 July 2026 finds President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) leading Pernambuco voters with 58 % in a first‑round scenario and ahead in a simulated second round against Flávio Bolsonaro.
On 1 August 2026 João Campos officially launched his candidacy for governor at a convention in Recife, with Vice‑President Geraldo Alckmin (PSB) attending and pledging a partnership between a future Campos administration and the federal government. Alckmin also used the event to endorse Lula and criticize the previous administration.
In the Senate race, a Datafolha poll shows Marília Arraes (PDT) leading with 18 % of voter intention, while incumbent senator Humberto Costa (PT) trails at 15 % (technical tie). Senator Costa later named former Bolsonaro‑ally Luciano Bivar (MDB) as his substitute on the ticket.
Entities
Brazil · Humberto Costa · João Campos · Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva · María Arraes · Marília Arraes · Pernambuco · Raquel Lyra · RealTime Big Data
Claims
What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.
- [DISPUTED] In a second‑round simulation, Raquel Lyra leads with 45% against João Campos at 44% in Pernambuco.
- [● 7 SOURCES] Raquel Lyra has 48% and João Campos 42% in the first‑round scenario in Pernambuco. www1.folha.uol.com.br · www.estadao.com.br · tnonline.uol.com.br
- [● 2 SOURCES] President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has 58% of first‑round voting intentions in Pernambuco according to a Real Time Big Data poll. cardinot.com.br · diariodoestadogo.com.br
- [○ 1 SOURCE] 36% of Pernambuco voters would definitely vote for a candidate endorsed by Lula, according to Datafolha.
- [● 4 SOURCES] Humberto Costa holds second place in the Pernambuco Senate intention poll with 21% of respondents. br.paipee.com · didigalvao.com.br · www.estadao.com.br
- [● 7 SOURCES] In a simulated second‑round, Raquel Lyra leads with 49% and João Campos has 45% in Pernambuco, a technical tie. cardinot.com.br · diariodoestadogo.com.br · www1.folha.uol.com.br · www.estadao.com.br · tnonline.uol.com.br
- [DISPUTED] María Arraes leads the Senate intention poll in Pernambuco with 28% of respondents. br.paipee.com · didigalvao.com.br · www.estadao.com.br
- [● 2 SOURCES] In a second‑round simulation, Raquel Lyra leads with 45% against João Campos at 44% in Pernambuco (Real Time).
- [● 4 SOURCES] Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has 58% of first‑round voting intentions in Pernambuco according to Real Time Big Data. cardinot.com.br · diariodoestadogo.com.br · odia.ig.com.br
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Marília Arraes leads the Senate intention poll in Pernambuco with 28% of respondents (Real Time). br.paipee.com
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Datafolha reports Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 57% in Pernambuco in a spontaneous poll.
- [● 2 SOURCES] Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads in a simulated second‑round against Flávio Bolsonaro in Pernambuco. cardinot.com.br · diariodoestadogo.com.br