Germany faces shortage of over 12,000 primary‑care doctors by 2040

A study commissioned by the Bosch Health Campus forecasts that by 2040 roughly 12,000 general‑practice doctor positions in Germany will remain vacant – about one‑fifth of all GP seats. The analysis warns that without accompanying measures the planned primary‑care reforms could fail.

Current data show more than 4,400 GP posts already unfilled, and the average age of practising general practitioners has risen from 52.6 to 55 years between 2009 and 2025, with the share of doctors over 65 increasing from 6 % to 16.5 %. Rural districts are projected to be hardest hit; for example, the Hochsauerlandkreis could see a 48 % drop in GP density, while Paderborn and Minden‑Lübbecke may each lose 47 % of their physicians. Approximately 20 % of German counties could fall below a 75 % coverage threshold, and another 15 % would be near that level.

The study highlights that the modest rise in total GP numbers – a four‑percent increase from 54,819 in 2019 to 55,435 in 2024 – lags far behind growth in other specialties, underscoring the urgency of policy action to sustain primary‑care access nationwide.