Poland faces economic shifts amid US trade policy and high GDP growth

Economic data highlights a shifting dynamic between Poland and the United States. In 2025, total trade between the two nations reached approximately $39.4 billion, with imports from Poland and exports to Poland nearly equal. However, the first quarter of 2026 showed a decline in Polish exports to the US by 11% year-over-year, while imports from the US rose by 10.2%, worsening Poland's trade balance.

Concerns are rising regarding US tariff policies under the Trump administration. As an EU member, Poland is subject to collective EU customs policies; therefore, US tariffs on EU goods directly impact Polish exporters. Estimates suggest that a 25% US tariff could reduce Poland's GDP by between 0.38% and 0.43%.

In contrast to broader concerns about European competitiveness, Poland has seen significant domestic growth. Between 2016 and 2026, Poland's cumulative GDP per capita (PPP) grew by 45%, significantly outpacing the 18% growth seen in the United States and much higher than growth rates in Germany, France, or Italy during the same period.