Poland faces rising inflation and banking sector risks

Poland is facing dual economic pressures as inflation rose to 4 percent year-on-year in September 2026, exceeding the National Bank of Poland’s target range. While real disposable income grew by 6.7 percent in 2025, rising costs and credit prices are offsetting these gains. Average interest rates for fixed-rate mortgages increased to 6.2 percent in September.

Simultaneously, the banking sector faces significant systemic risk due to legal disputes regarding loans based on the WIBOR index. A report by the Sobieski Institute indicates that over 2,700 first-instance proceedings were underway by the end of 2025. The Polish Bank Association warns that contesting WIBOR could cost the banking sector up to 284 billion PLN, a sum comparable to the total capital of the banks. Such a loss could lead to bank failures, forced restructurings, and broader instability in the national economy, affecting everything from state treasury bonds to leasing assets.