Poland faces rising public debt and record low fertility rates

German economist Thomas Mayer warned that Poland’s rapidly growing public‑debt deficit and one of the lowest fertility rates in Europe could determine the country’s long‑term economic outlook. In the first quarter of the year, public debt rose by 109 billion zł, reaching 2.44 trillion zł, while GDP grew 3.5 % year‑on‑year, placing Poland third in EU growth rankings.

Demographer Irena Kotowska stressed that the falling total fertility rate – 1.068 in 2025 – is part of a post‑transitional demographic stage seen in many nations, not a catastrophe. She noted ongoing population decline, ageing, and a shrinking labour‑force, despite the IVF programme that produced about 15 000 children. Experts point to factors such as housing availability, job stability and changing family norms as drivers of the low birth rate, warning that the trend will likely continue for decades.