Poland forecasts stable inflation through 2030 in new budget draft

The Polish Ministry of Finance has released inflation projections within the justification for the 2027 state budget draft. The government forecasts that average annual inflation will remain within the National Bank of Poland’s target range, estimated at 2.5% in 2028, 2.6% in 2029, and 2.5% in 2030.

These projections are based on a scenario of weakening economic demand, which is expected to help lower consumer price dynamics in the coming years. The forecast also anticipates a slight decline in average employment, with annual decreases of 0.1% in 2028, 0.3% in 2029, and 0.1% in 2030. Additionally, the current account deficit is expected to stabilize between 1.2% and 1.4% of GDP during this period.

The government noted that these estimates do not account for the potential impacts of the European Commission’s proposed ETS2 directive regarding decarbonization and competitiveness. As the directive is still subject to work by the European Parliament and the Council of the European Union, the Polish Council of Ministers intends to discuss national implementation solutions.