Poland fuel prices surge amid Middle East oil shock

A spring 2026 conflict in the Middle East drove oil prices up sharply, with Brent crude rising between $84 and $114 per barrel – a $30 swing. Analyses show that each $10 increase in the oil barrel translates to roughly 27 groszy per litre higher diesel and 19 groszy per litre higher gasoline in Poland. Consequently, fuel prices rose over 15 % within a single month, pushing the consumer‑price index to 3 % year‑on‑year and dragging consumer confidence down sharply.

In response, the Polish government launched the CPN programme, featuring reduced VAT and excise on fuels, minister‑set daily price caps and a cap on retail margins at 30 groszy per litre. Early estimates suggest the package cut inflation by about 0.8 percentage points, at an estimated fiscal cost of 1.5 billion złoty per month.

At the same time, global logistics chains faced renewed strain as a renewed blockade of the Strait of Hormuz added further uncertainty to maritime freight routes, echoing earlier disruptions in the Red Sea and Panama Canal. Industry observers stress that existing safety procedures are being outpaced, prompting calls for new resilience measures across the supply chain.