Poland inflation rises to 4.0% in September driven by fuel costs

inflation CPI GUS fuel prices interest rates

Poland's consumer price inflation (CPI) rose to 4.0% year-on-year in September, up from 3.4% in August, according to preliminary data from the Central Statistical Office (GUS). This increase places inflation above the upper limit of the target deviation range set by the National Bank of Poland (NBP).

The primary driver of this acceleration was a significant spike in fuel and lubricant prices, which rose by 36.1% year-on-year and 9.2% month-on-month. Additionally, electricity, gas, and other fuels increased by 4.9% year-on-year. While food and non-alcoholic beverage prices saw a slight month-on-month increase of 0.1%, they remained 0.5% lower than the previous year.

Economists from various institutions, including ING and Erste Bank Polska, suggest that the inflationary trend may continue due to high energy costs and potential food price increases following poor harvests. This shift in data has altered market expectations regarding monetary policy, with some analysts now considering the possibility of interest rate hikes in 2027 rather than immediate cuts.

Entities

Adam Glapiński · Erste Bank Polska · Główny Urząd Statystyczny · ING Bank Śląski · Monetary Policy Council · Narodowy Bank Polski · National Bank of Poland · Rada Polityki Pieniężnej · Statistics Poland

Claims

What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.

[○ 1 SOURCE] Analysts expected a year-on-year inflation increase of 4.1% in September. www.portalspozywczy.pl
[● 11 SOURCES] CPI increased by 0.7% month-on-month in September. forexclub.pl · www.portalspozywczy.pl · www.farmer.pl · www.salon24.pl · www.wiadomoscihandlowe.pl · +3 more
[DISPUTED] Fuel and lubricants for private transport rose by 36.1% year-on-year in September. forexclub.pl · www.portalspozywczy.pl · www.farmer.pl · www.salon24.pl · dorzeczy.pl
[● 6 SOURCES] Food and non-alcoholic beverages prices rose by 0.1% month-on-month in September. forexclub.pl · www.portalspozywczy.pl · www.farmer.pl · www.fakt.pl · forsal.pl
[DISPUTED] Food and non-alcoholic beverages prices fell by 0.5% year-on-year in September. www.portalspozywczy.pl · www.farmer.pl · forexclub.pl · forsal.pl
[● 9 SOURCES] Fuel and lubricants for private transport rose by 9.2% month-on-month in September. forexclub.pl · www.portalspozywczy.pl · www.farmer.pl · www.salon24.pl · www.fakt.pl · +1 more
[DISPUTED] Electricity, gas, and other fuels increased by 4.9% year-on-year in September. forexclub.pl · www.portalspozywczy.pl · www.farmer.pl
[DISPUTED] Consumer price inflation (CPI) rose by 4.0% year-on-year in September. forexclub.pl · www.portalspozywczy.pl · comparic.pl · www.farmer.pl · www.salon24.pl · +4 more
[● 2 SOURCES] ING Economics predicts a 50 basis point interest rate hike in early 2027. www.wnp.pl