Poland political polls show shifting support and government division

Recent polling data from multiple agencies, including OGB, CBOS, and IBRiS, reveals a shifting political landscape in Poland three years after the last parliamentary elections. While Koalicja Obywatelska (KO) remains the leading party with approximately 35.9% support, its lead over Prawo i Sprawiedliwość (PiS)—which saw a 2.4 percentage point increase to 25%—has narrowed.

Public perception of Donald Tusk’s government remains deeply polarized. Surveys indicate that roughly 42% to 49% of respondents view the government's impact on the country either positively or negatively, with significant divides based on political affiliation. While 96% of coalition voters support the administration, approximately 83% of opposition supporters express criticism.

Other parties are experiencing volatility. Konfederacja and its various factions are seeing mixed results, with some subgroups gaining ground while others lose support. Meanwhile, the political future of smaller groups like Nowa Lewica and PSL appears uncertain as they hover near electoral thresholds. Additionally, Mateusz Morawiecki’s Rozwój Plus association has seen a decline in support to 3.6%, and the formal establishment of a political party under that name has been delayed.