Poland's falling birth rate viewed as demographic shift, not crisis

Polish demographer Irena E. Kotowska says the country's low and very low fertility rates are part of a global, post‑transitional demographic change rather than a catastrophe. Poland's total fertility rate fell to 1.068 last year, well below the 2.1 replacement level, and the population is expected to decline even if fertility were significantly boosted.

Factors contributing to the decline include limited access to affordable housing, precarious employment contracts, changing cultural expectations about family life, and extensive smartphone and social‑media use among younger generations. The government‑financed in‑vitro fertilisation program has resulted in about 15,000 births, but broader policy measures such as parental leave reforms have had limited impact. Experts suggest reducing young people’s exposure to smartphones and improving job security as ways to slow the demographic downturn.

Kotowska emphasizes that while the number of births is decreasing, the focus should shift to mitigating the speed of depopulation rather than attempting to reverse the trend in the short term.