Poland's housing and commercial property markets project steady growth

Polish developers expect the new‑housing market to expand over the next two to three years, with plans to launch 4,350‑4,550 units this year—about half in Warsaw—and to continue building in the Tricity area. A public‑private partnership with Gmina Gdańsk will support a large redevelopment project at the former shipyard, and the sector aims to sell more than 4,500 homes annually by 2028. Analysts note that while competition remains strong, success will depend on securing land, timely project rollout and matching supply to long‑term demand driven by household formation, urban migration and stable household numbers despite a declining population.

In the commercial‑real‑estate segment, Polish capital is rapidly increasing its share of investment activity. According to Avison Young, domestic investors moved from roughly 3 % of transaction value in 2020‑22 to an expected 20 % by 2026, with total investment volume projected to reach €6 billion. The average deal size for Polish investors rose from €8 million in 2022 to €21 million in the first half of 2026. Investment focus has shifted from retail assets in 2022 to office properties in 2023, with a growing emphasis on value‑add and opportunistic strategies.