Poland's experimental data shows 2.3 million foreigners in 2025

Poland population estimate foreign residents GUS experimental study Ukrainian citizens

An experimental study by Poland’s Central Statistical Office (GUS) used administrative registers – including the population register (PESEL), social insurance, health insurance and migration databases – to estimate the country’s population at the end of 2025. The study puts the total at 38.8 million people, of which about 2.3 million (roughly 6 percent) are foreign nationals. The largest foreign clusters are in the Mazowieckie and Dolnośląskie regions, with Warsaw reporting a 14.5 percent share of foreigners. About three‑quarters of the foreign‑born residents are citizens of Ukraine.

Local authorities in municipalities where foreign residents exceed 15‑25 percent – such as Ustronie Morskie, Mikstat, Głowno, Raszyn, Mława and Jelcz‑Laskowice – say they experience little ethnic tension and note that newcomers contribute taxes and support school enrolment, helping to sustain local services. The GUS results are experimental and not official statistics, but they illustrate how register‑based methods can sharpen demographic insight for future EU reporting requirements.

Entities: Central Statistical Office of Poland · European Union · Główny Urząd Statystyczny (GUS) · Joanna Hausman‑Czerwińska · Piotr Szukalski · Poland · Ukraine · Warsaw

Claims

What the coverage asserts, and how well corroborated each claim is across sources.

[● 2 SOURCES] Around 75 % of the foreign residents are citizens of Ukraine. (GUS experimental study)
[● 2 SOURCES] The experimental GUS study estimated Poland's total population at 38.8 million people at the end of 2025. (GUS experimental study)
[● 2 SOURCES] In Warsaw, foreigners constitute about 14.5 % of the city’s residents. (GUS experimental study)
[○ 1 SOURCE] Local officials report little ethnic tension and note that foreign residents contribute taxes and support school enrolments. (Local officials quoted in article)
[● 2 SOURCES] The GUS experimental study used administrative registers such as the population register (PESEL), the Social Insurance Institution, the National Health Fund and the Office for Foreigners. (GUS experimental study)
[● 2 SOURCES] The largest concentrations of foreigners are in the Mazowieckie and Dolnośląskie regions. (GUS experimental study)
[○ 1 SOURCE] Municipalities such as Ustronie Morskie, Mikstat, Głowno, Raszyn, Mława and Jelcz‑Laskowice have foreign‑resident shares exceeding 25 % of their populations. (Local officials quoted in article)
[● 2 SOURCES] The same study estimated that about 2.3 million people (≈6 % of the population) were foreign nationals. (GUS experimental study)