Polar vortex weakening could bring cold weather to Italy

Meteorological models, including ECMWF and GFS, indicate a potential weakening or splitting of the stratospheric polar vortex between late October and early November. This atmospheric phenomenon, characterized by intense westerly winds and extremely low temperatures in the Arctic, could allow cold air masses to descend toward lower latitudes.

If the vortex undergoes a significant split or experiences a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event, it could trigger early cold waves, rain, and wind across Europe and Italy. While a split typically impacts surface weather one to six weeks after its occurrence, current simulations suggest a disturbance around November 4 and 5. Experts note that such an early shift is rare for this time of year, though it may be influenced by intense El Niño patterns.