Poland's NBP keeps policy rate at 3.75% as inflation outlook tightens

The National Bank of Poland (NBP) left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.75% following its July meeting. In its updated inflation projection, the bank now expects median consumer‑price growth of 2.9% in 2026 – about 0.6 percentage points higher than the March forecast – before easing toward the 2.5% target in 2027. The revision reflects higher energy‑price expectations after the Middle‑East conflict.

Polish households remain cautious about long‑term deposits. A Raisin survey shows more than half of savers prefer term deposits of six months or less, citing quick access to funds and security over higher yields. Only a small minority would choose longer‑term placements even with a modest rate bonus.

The commercial‑real‑estate market shows growing liquidity but a clear split between premium new offices and older assets. Recent transactions in Warsaw’s prime districts, such as the sale of the 174‑metre‑tall “The Bridge” tower for €300 million, illustrate strong demand for high‑quality, fully let properties. Older buildings that require refurbishment are being valued more conservatively, with experts noting that active management will be key to unlocking future value.