Polish polls show KO winning most votes but losing power

Recent political polling in Poland indicates that while Koalicja Obywatelska (KO) would emerge as the leading party in a parliamentary election, the current governing coalition might lose its majority.

According to different survey simulations, KO is projected to secure between 190 and 196 seats. When combined with the Lewica (Left) party, the total number of seats falls short of the 231 required for a majority. In contrast, a grouping of right-wing parties, including Prawo i Sprawiedliwość (PiS), Konfederacja, and Konfederacja Korony Polskiej, could potentially secure a majority of seats.

One simulation highlights the potential influence of the Rozwój Plus group, led by Mateusz Morawiecki. Depending on the specific seat distribution, this smaller group could act as a kingmaker in negotiations to form a majority. Other parties, such as PSL, Polska 2050, and Partia Razem, are projected to potentially fall below the electoral threshold in these scenarios.