El Niño intensifies flood and drought risks in Rio Grande do Sul

The United Nations' World Meteorological Organization and Brazil's INMET warn that El Niño will strengthen through September, bringing above‑average rainfall to the southern states and heightened drought risk elsewhere. In Rio Grande do Sul the phenomenon has already raised river levels, with the Rio Uruguai nearing its flood threshold and local authorities issuing alerts for new inundations.

Intense rains this week caused flash floods in Sananduva, Charrua and Barão de Cotegipe, while the Defence Civil of Porto Alegre began monitoring a possible rise of the Guaíba River. The 2024 floods in the state affected 6.3 million people, displaced more than 349 000 and left 185 dead. Reconstruction efforts include a R$13.7 million contract to rebuild streets in Gramado's Piratini Norte neighbourhood and other municipal works.

State governments have responded with coordinated actions: Rio de Janeiro created a dedicated El Niño response committee, Rio de Janeiro’s civil‑defence agencies launched Operation Extinctus 2026, and the Rio Grande do Sul government released the free Simagro Estiagem platform to monitor soil‑water availability for farmers and public managers. The BNDES earmarked tens of millions of reais for flood‑ and fire‑mitigation measures across the Amazon and other vulnerable regions.

Weather models for early July show a shift toward shorter, less extreme rain systems, though precipitation will remain above the climatological average across much of the south, sustaining flood risk while reducing the likelihood of the very high accumulations seen at the end of June.