Prediction Market Platforms Grow in Europe and Japan as Regulators React

Crypto‑focused prediction markets are expanding globally while facing heightened regulatory scrutiny. In Europe, Binance encountered pushback from regulators as EthLabs scales its Ethereum‑focused research nonprofit, aiming to ready the network for institutional adoption. A study of 857,000 Polymarket users found that roughly 60 % of first‑time bettors had never used blockchain before, highlighting prediction markets as a potential on‑ramp for new crypto participants. Meanwhile, U.S. political dynamics delayed a housing bill that would ban central‑bank digital currencies until 2030, underscoring how crypto policy remains entangled with broader legislation.

In Japan, startups are redesigning prediction markets to comply with strict gambling laws by substituting cash and crypto with loyalty points and redeemable coins. Platforms such as POYP, IGS’s Signals, and NERO YOSO enable users to forecast outcomes and earn points that can be exchanged for third‑party benefits, thereby avoiding monetary stakes. Publicly traded Gumi Group announced a study into compliant, AI‑driven prediction markets, while Polymarket appointed a local representative and seeks government authorization by 2030. Japanese exchange Bitbank warned that using foreign prediction services could trigger account suspensions, reflecting ongoing regulatory caution.