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[SITUATION] · [ACTIVE]
29 clusters · 184 sources · 54 days · First seen · Last updated
Categories: POLITICS · BUSINESS · TECHNOLOGY · CULTURE
Prediction Market Regulation, Insider Probe & Brazil Ban
Entities: U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission · Kalshi · White House · Donald Trump · Gabriel Perez
Overview
U.S. regulators have intensified oversight of prediction‑market and crypto‑derivatives platforms since early June 2026. The CFTC’s draft framework keeps price‑discovery contracts separate from gambling‑style bets, while the SEC‑CFTC joint comment period on portfolio‑margin rules remains open. Exchanges such as MEXC have rolled out multi‑contract combos, and firms including Kalvia, Coinbase and Kraken received approvals for crypto perpetual futures, narrowing the securities‑futures oversight gap.
In July the CFTC opened an insider‑trading investigation after Kalshi’s surveillance flagged “Mention” bets that used non‑public information from President Trump’s speeches. White House teleprompter operator Gabriel Perez was placed on unpaid administrative leave, his account frozen, and roughly $100,000 in alleged profits were seized. The White House called the conduct “deeply regrettable” and “a disgrace.” Regulators are negotiating a settlement that could require repayment and a trading ban, though no criminal charges have been filed.
Brazilian regulators expanded their ban on prediction‑market services, adding Polymarket, Kalshi and 25 other platforms to a list of unlicensed operators, reinforcing a coordinated international effort to curb unregulated markets.
Commercial activity continues to grow. StartupHub.ai launched a cross‑venue arbitrage engine that scans Polymarket, Kalshi/Robinhood and PredictIt, and Jump Trading added a “Cultural Alpha” unit to exploit market data. Separately, crypto exchange Toobit announced a $100,000 USDT reward campaign running from 21 July to 11 August, highlighting rapid expansion in prediction‑market trading volume and user participation.
Claims
What the coverage asserts, and how well corroborated each claim is across sources.
- [● 7 SOURCES] Gabriel Perez was a White House teleprompter operator. (Associated Press, Reuters, The Independent)
- [● 7 SOURCES] Perez was placed on unpaid leave after reports he used inside knowledge to bet on Trump’s speeches. (Associated Press, Reuters, The Independent)
- [● 7 SOURCES] Perez earned more than $100,000 by betting on Trump’s speeches on Kalshi. (Associated Press, Reuters, The Independent)
- [● 7 SOURCES] As of Tuesday, Gabriel Perez no longer works for the federal government. (Associated Press, Reuters, The Independent)
- [● 7 SOURCES] Kalshi flagged the trades and referred them to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. (Associated Press, Reuters, The Independent)
- [● 7 SOURCES] The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission is investigating the alleged insider trading. (Associated Press, Reuters, The Independent)
- [● 7 SOURCES] White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt called the allegations “deeply unfortunate and a disgrace.” (Associated Press, Reuters, The Independent)
- [● 7 SOURCES] Kalshi now requires users to disclose their place of employment and prohibits betting based on job‑derived information. (Associated Press, Reuters, The Independent)
Timeline
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2 days ago
[POLITICS] 11 sourcesGabriel Perez loses White House job amid Kalshi betting scandalWhite House teleprompter operator Gabriel Perez, accused of earning $100K+ by betting on Trump’s speeches via Kalshi, is no longer employed by the federal government; Kalshi flagged the trades to the CFTC.
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9 days ago
[BUSINESS] 2 sourcesToobit Launches $100,000 USDT Prediction Market CampaignToobit relaunched its prediction market campaign on July 21 2026, offering a 100,000 USDT prize pool across four activity tiers and a lucky‑draw, as global prediction‑market trading surges.
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11 days ago
[POLITICS] 7 sourcesTrump teleprompter operator placed on unpaid leave over $100K betting scandalTrump’s teleprompter operator Gabriel Perez was put on unpaid leave after allegedly betting over $100,000 on words in the president’s speeches via Kalshi, prompting a CFTC probe.
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13 days ago
[POLITICS] 34 sourcesGabriel Perez, Trump’s teleprompter operator, under CFTC investigation for insider bettingTrump’s long‑time teleprompter operator Gabriel Perez has been placed on unpaid leave and is under CFTC investigation after Kalshi flagged $90k‑plus in insider bets on the president’s speeches, earning over $
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14 days ago
[POLITICS] 8 sourcesPrediction Markets Under Fire in US and Brazil Amid Insider Trading Probe and Platform BanUS investigators allege Trump’s former teleprompter operator insider‑traded on Kalshi, while Brazil bans Polymarket, Kalshi and 25 other prediction platforms over licensing concerns.
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14 days ago
[BUSINESS] 2 sourcesPrediction Markets Grow with New Arbitrage Feed and Team ExpansionStartupHub.ai unveils a live arbitrage feed for prediction markets, while Jump Trading expands its prediction‑markets team, reflecting rising commercial interest in the sector.
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15 days ago
[BUSINESS] 2 sourcesToobit launches $100,000 Telegram Mini App rewards campaignToobit, a global crypto exchange, is offering a 100,000 USDT reward campaign on Telegram’s Mini App from July 15 to Aug 3, 2026, requiring deposits, trading volume and referrals.
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16 days ago
[POLITICS] 75 sourcesWhite House teleprompter operator Gabriel Perez suspended over insider‑trading allegationsGabriel Perez, Trump’s teleprompter operator, was suspended and dismissed after the CFTC investigated his $100k‑plus bets on Kalshi prediction markets using inside speech information.
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16 days ago
[TECHNOLOGY] 3 sourcesBlockchain.com Partners with Polymarket to Add Prediction Markets to Its AppBlockchain.com partners with Polymarket to embed prediction‑market trading in its app, letting 43 million users trade real‑world outcomes directly, timed with peak football tournament activity.
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21 days ago
[BUSINESS] 2 sourcesCrypto Exchanges Toobit and BingX Unveil Multi‑Million USDT Trading Reward CampaignsToobit and BingX have launched USDT‑valued trading reward campaigns, offering 100,000 USDT and 1 million USDT respectively, to boost crypto and earnings‑season trading activity.
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22 days ago
[BUSINESS] 2 sourcesUS SEC delays election‑betting ETFs while Ethereum ETFs target mid‑July debutThe SEC stalls election‑betting ETF launches while Ethereum ETFs near a mid‑July debut, as issuers finalize filings and fee structures.
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29 days ago
[BUSINESS] 3 sourcesToobit launches July crypto trading reward campaignsToobit launched a July crypto trading rewards campaign offering up to $20,200 USDT, and its DHF token presale sold out, prompting a 15 million DHF prize‑pool trading competition.
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30 days ago
[BUSINESS] 2 sourcesU.S. SEC Proposes Filing Category Simplification and Opens Review of Novel ETFsThe SEC proposes to simplify filer categories, extend filing times and ease compliance for smaller companies, while also opening a 27‑question review of novel ETFs covering crypto and event‑contract products.
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about 1 month ago
[BUSINESS] 4 sourcesUS SEC opens public comment on novel prediction‑market exchange‑traded fundsThe US SEC has opened a public comment period on novel prediction‑market ETFs, pausing over two dozen filings and assessing regulatory rules, investor protection and market‑risk issues.
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about 1 month ago
[BUSINESS] 3 sourcesPrediction Market Platforms Grow in Europe and Japan as Regulators ReactPrediction markets are expanding in Europe and Japan, with Binance facing EU scrutiny, EthLabs scaling Ethereum adoption, and Japanese startups using loyalty points to skirt gambling laws, while US policy on a
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about 1 month ago
[BUSINESS] 3 sourcesSEC and CFTC launch 60‑day public comment on crypto portfolio margin rulesThe SEC and CFTC have opened a 60‑day comment period to align portfolio margin rules for crypto derivatives, seeking input on cross‑margining, collateral and risk management.
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about 1 month ago
[POLITICS] 2 sourcesUS House advances legislation to bar lawmakers from political prediction marketsThe US House committee approved a bill banning lawmakers and their families from trading on political prediction markets, imposing fines and profit forfeiture; Democrats call for a broader ban like the Senate's
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about 1 month ago
[POLITICS] 4 sourcesUS House proposes bill to bar lawmakers from betting on prediction marketsRep. Bryan Steil's Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act would ban Congress members, spouses and children from betting on political outcomes in prediction markets, with civil penalties for violations.
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about 1 month ago
[BUSINESS] 5 sourcesPrediction Markets Gain Mainstream Traction as Trading Volumes Surge GloballyPrediction markets are moving into the mainstream, with US trading volume topping $25 billion in 2025 and global monthly volume reaching $24 billion by April 2026, prompting new CFTC rules and attracting both ‑
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about 1 month ago
[POLITICS] 2 sourcesU.S. Rep. Bryan Steil Introduces Prediction‑Market Betting Ban for LawmakersU.S. Rep. Bryan Steil introduced the Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act, banning congressional members, spouses and dependent children from betting on policy or political outcomes in prediction markets, with $2
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about 1 month ago
[POLITICS] 6 sourcesU.S. regulators scrutinize election prediction markets amid legal battlesU.S. regulators and Congress are tightening oversight of election prediction markets after a court allowed Kalshi to offer political contracts, sparking debate over accuracy, manipulation risks, and legal gaps.
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about 1 month ago
[BUSINESS] 2 sourcesCFTC Pushes Sports Prediction Market Rules as States Sue Over JurisdictionThe CFTC proposed rules to allow regulated sports‑outcome prediction contracts, banning player props, while federal and state lawsuits in NY, KY, NV and NM intensify the jurisdiction battle.
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about 2 months ago
[BUSINESS] 3 sourcesUS CFTC and SEC propose rule changes affecting prediction markets and tokenized stocksThe CFTC proposes a public‑interest test for prediction‑market contracts, while the SEC seeks to rescind key NMS rules, potentially opening U.S. markets to tokenized stocks.
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about 2 months ago
[POLITICS] 2 sourcesUS Senate Democrats Push CFTC to Tighten Oversight of Prediction MarketsSixteen US Senate Democrats, led by Amy Klobuchar, urged the CFTC to tighten regulation of prediction markets, citing rapid growth, retail exposure and insider‑trading risks, including a soldier’s $400k bet on
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about 2 months ago
[BUSINESS] 8 sourcesCFTC proposes rules allowing sports and election prediction marketsThe CFTC's June 10 proposal would permit sports and election prediction contracts while barring those tied to injuries, officiating, war or terrorism, launching a 45‑day public comment period.
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about 2 months ago
[BUSINESS] 2 sourcesCFTC Framework and MEXC Combo Product Drive Prediction Market GrowthThe CFTC proposes a tiered rulebook for prediction markets while MEXC launches a zero‑fee combo product, both aiming to legitimize and expand multi‑event speculation.
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about 2 months ago
[BUSINESS] 2 sourcesToobit Introduces Prediction Market Platform for Event-Based Crypto TradingToobit launched a Prediction Market allowing crypto traders to bet on real‑world events, using USDT and daily caps, available on web and app; industry volumes grew from $1.2 bn to $25 bn in 2025‑2026.
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about 2 months ago
[CULTURE] 3 sourcesOnline Prediction Markets and Political Shitposting Shape Digital DiscoursePrediction markets let users bet on wars and disasters, while political ‘shitposting’ fuels viral, provocative online discourse, reshaping digital political engagement.
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about 2 months ago
[TECHNOLOGY] 2 sourcesPrediction Market Platforms Add Advanced Trading Tools and Explore Scientific ForecastingPrediction markets are adding sophisticated trading features and mobile tools while also being tested for scientific forecasting, though experts caution limits and manipulation risks.
Sources
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