Prediction Markets Under Fire in US and Brazil Amid Insider Trading Probe and Platform Ban

Federal investigators with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission said Trump’s longtime teleprompter operator is believed to have earned tens of thousands of dollars by placing bets on speeches and other events on the prediction market Kalshi, indicating possible insider trading.

Brazilian authorities have blocked access to Polymarket, Kalshi and 25 additional prediction platforms, describing the move as a decisive step against unlicensed platforms. The ban, reported by CoinMarketCap on July 15, 2026, treats the services as operating outside licensed boundaries and reflects growing regulatory pressure on prediction‑market operators.