Record-Breaking El Niño Threatens African Economies

Scientists warned that a “super” El Niño is forming, and forecast models now suggest it could become the strongest on record. Zeke Hausfather of Berkeley Earth noted that peak tropical Pacific temperatures may rise about 6.5 °F (3.6 °C) above average—roughly 0.8 °C higher than the 2015‑16 event—stating, “the models are forecasting something outside the envelope of anything we have ever observed.” NOAA officially declared El Niño in June, and the anomaly could push global average temperatures as high as 3 °F (1.7 °C) above pre‑industrial levels by 2027, exceeding the Paris Agreement threshold.

The African Development Bank warned that the event could erase $10‑20 billion from the continent’s hardest‑hit economies, cutting GDP by 1‑2 % on average. AfDB climate‑change director Anthony Nyong said the loss “is going to reduce heavily affected countries’ GDP by 1 % to 2 % on average, which is about $10 billion to $20 billion across the continent.” The bank warned of mass displacement, higher food prices, deeper fiscal strain and increased borrowing as governments divert resources to disaster response.