Republicans gain edge in 2026 House race and South Carolina Senate as redistricting and polls favor GOP

Redistricting following the 2020 census has produced new district maps that the GOP says correct earlier losses. Analysts project Republicans to hold 211 seats in the House versus 208 for Democrats, with 16 races still undecided. Former Trump deputy chief of staff James Blair claimed the new lines give the party “seats Republicans are RIGHTLY due” and level the playing field for upcoming campaigns.

In the Senate, incumbent Republican Lindsey Graham is leading the South Carolina Republican primary with 56% support in an Insider Advantage poll, well above the threshold to avoid a runoff. The poll noted Graham leads “among every single demographic group,” and a majority of respondents said former President Donald Trump’s endorsement would help his victory. Prediction‑market prices place a Republican win in the general election at roughly 80‑85%, underscoring the broader GOP advantage heading into the 2026 elections.