Retailers face shifting holiday shopping peaks

Retailers are facing shifting holiday shopping patterns that may challenge traditional operational planning. While apparel and department stores like Gap and Macy’s typically see peak visitation during Black Friday week, many major big-box and discount retailers—including Walmart, Target, and Costco—experience their highest visitation during the week of December 15, often referred to as the “Final Dash.”

Data indicates that gift card purchases also reflect this shift. While volume doubles during Black Friday, purchase volume jumps to seven times the pre-season baseline the week before Christmas, accompanied by a 14 percent increase in average card value. This suggests that staffing and inventory models anchored solely on Black Friday may fail to account for the larger demand spike occurring later in the season.

In the United States, retail sales are projected to grow by 2.7% to 3.7% compared to 2024, potentially reaching $5.48 trillion. Despite this projected growth, the National Retail Federation notes that policy uncertainty continues to weigh on consumer and business confidence.