Romania coffee prices surge as Brazil harvest delays tighten Arabica supply

Coffee prices in Romania are climbing sharply amid a combination of reduced inventories, delivery delays and logistical bottlenecks. Arabica reserves are approaching levels not seen since the early 1990s, and analysts warn that further weather or transport problems could push prices to new records.

Futures contracts for Arabica have risen almost 10% in just two trading sessions, despite optimistic US Department of Agriculture forecasts of a massive Brazilian harvest of over 70 million bags. Local analysts cite unusually low rainfall in Minas Gerais – the main Arabica‑producing region – as a key factor limiting the crop, with precipitation falling to just 2 mm in a week, far below historical averages. The analysis, cited by XTB România, notes that while the theoretical supply remains large, the coffee has not yet reached the market, keeping prices high.

The situation underscores how weather‑related disruptions in Brazil are directly affecting Romanian consumers and the broader HoReCa sector, with the risk of continued price spikes if the supply chain does not stabilise.