Romania confronts electricity adequacy shortfall and record balancing‑market price spikes

A Transelectrica adequacy study warns that Romania’s power system could face a major shortfall in the winter of 2026‑2027. The analysis projects a Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE) of 143.55 hours and an Expected Energy Not Served (ENS) of 36,070 MWh for 2027, indicating that insufficient firm capacity may leave consumers without power during peak winter demand. The report highlights that retaining lignite‑fired units at Rovinari and Turceni would cut the LOLE to 11.34 hours and ENS to 3,456 MWh, underscoring the continued strategic role of conventional plants until renewable replacements are fully operational.

Separately, Romania’s real‑time electricity balancing market recorded an extreme price spike on 27 April 2026, with a balancing price of 60,976 lei per MWh (over €12,000/MWh) for a 5 MWh volume – one of the highest ever seen. Such spikes arise when renewable output deviates sharply from forecasts, forcing the system to procure short‑term energy at very high cost. The expense is initially borne by the responsible producers or suppliers but ultimately passes to consumers and, under the capped‑price regime, may impact the state budget. The episode revives concerns about market design, speculation and the need for regulatory reforms to ensure supply security without undue cost burdens.