Romania macroeconomic confidence rises despite recession risks

Romania’s macroeconomic confidence index rose by 6.7 points to 44.2 in July, according to the CFA Romania Association. This improvement follows confirmation from rating agencies of the country’s investment-grade status.

Despite the rise in confidence, analysts warn of continued economic stagnation and an elevated risk of recession. While inflation expectations have declined—with a 12-month average forecast of 6.32%—the outlook for the Romanian leu remains negative. Approximately 84% of survey participants anticipate the currency will depreciate against the euro over the next year.

Public finances are expected to face ongoing pressure. The budget deficit for 2026 is projected at 6.2% of GDP, and public debt is forecasted to reach 63% of GDP within the next 12 months. Additionally, the residential property market is expected to remain weak, with 74% of respondents considering current urban property prices to be overvalued.