Romania's central bank warns leu exchange‑rate risks stay high amid Middle East conflict

The National Bank of Romania (BNR) said the risk to the leu’s exchange rate remains elevated because of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, expectations about monetary policy from major central banks, large twin deficits and internal political uncertainty. In the monetary‑policy council meeting on 8 July, members noted that inter‑bank market rates stayed relatively stable in the second half of Q2 2026 and that medium‑ and long‑term government‑bond yields continued a slow, moderate downward adjustment.

BNR also projected that annual inflation will ease slightly in June and drop more substantially in Q3 2026, driven by the phasing‑out of the electricity‑price cap and higher VAT and excise rates. The leu/euro rate has largely held steady after reversing a mid‑quarter decline, while the leu/dollar ratio has kept an upward trend as the US dollar strengthens globally.