Russia could launch limited NATO attack by 2029, US intelligence warns

U.S. intelligence analyses suggest that Russia could launch a "limited" attack on NATO territory between the autumn of 2026 and 2029. This potential aggression could involve moving troops across borders or utilizing hybrid tactics, such as cyberattacks and sabotage, to seize portions of a NATO member state.

Intelligence assessments indicate that Moscow may attempt to exploit perceived divisions within the alliance, particularly regarding the United States' stance toward Europe, and target members before they have sufficiently upgraded their military capabilities. While NATO has long warned of potential Russian interest in the Baltic states following the conflict in Ukraine, officials note that the timing of a transition from hybrid operations to direct military action remains a subject of debate among intelligence services.

Previously, U.S. officials believed President Vladimir Putin would not risk an attack on NATO while heavily engaged in Ukraine. However, recent assessments have shifted following Ukraine's effectiveness in targeting Russian economic and oil infrastructure.