Russia makes limited gains as Ukraine war stalls

The Institute for the Study of War reported that Russian forces have achieved only modest territorial advances in the ongoing offensive, notably in Kostyantynivka, while failing to secure major objectives such as Sloviansk. Market analysts note the probability of Russia capturing Sloviansk by year‑end has risen modestly to about 8%.

Analysts at Jamestown observe a shift in perception of the conflict, describing Russia’s campaign as increasingly ineffective. They cite setbacks highlighted at the NATO summit in Ankara, renewed U.S. support for Ukraine, and Turkey’s alignment with NATO, all contributing to Russia’s strategic drift. Domestic pressures in Russia, including elite discontent, economic strain, and public fatigue, raise concerns that further mobilization could destabilise the Kremlin.

The combined assessments suggest a protracted stalemate with Russia unable to deliver decisive breakthroughs, while Ukraine benefits from technological and diplomatic gains.