Russia-Ukraine war stalemate

In mid‑July 2026, analysts noted that Russian forces had made only modest territorial advances, such as a limited gain in Kostyantynivka, while failing to capture key objectives like Sloviansk. Market forecasts showed a slight increase in the probability of a Sloviansk takeover by year‑end, but broader assessments pointed to an increasingly ineffective Russian campaign, domestic pressures, and renewed Western support for Ukraine.

Two weeks later, a wider study highlighted the cumulative toll of the four‑year conflict. Russia controls about 12 % of Ukrainian territory plus Crimea, and its net territorial gain in the most recent year amounted to roughly 4,800 km². Casualties exceed two million combined, with over a million Russian soldiers and up to six hundred thousand Ukrainian losses. To replenish its ranks, Moscow has recruited foreign volunteers from several countries, including North Korea. The overall picture reinforced a protracted and costly stalemate, with limited gains despite substantial human and material costs.