Russian Central Bank Raises 2026 Inflation Forecast to 6‑7% and Cuts Growth Outlook

Bank of Russia inflation forecast GDP growth outlook fuel price shock Ukrainian drone attacks

The Bank of Russia announced that it now expects inflation to run at 6 %‑7 % in 2026, up from the previous 4.5 %‑5.5 % range. The upward revision is attributed to a sharp increase in fuel prices, which the bank describes as an “supply‑shock” caused by Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure.

The central bank also lowered its 2026 gross‑domestic‑product growth forecast to 0‑1 %, down from 0.5‑1.5 %, and cut the fourth‑quarter growth projection from 1‑2 % to 0‑1.5 % year‑on‑year. In tandem with the growth downgrade, the Bank reduced its key policy rate by 25 basis points to 14 %.

Ukrainian drones struck a refinery in Tyumen, a logistics hub in Yekaterinburg and a fuel depot in Rostov‑on‑Don, leading to fuel shortages in several Russian regions in June. The bank expects fuel‑production capacity to be gradually restored by the end of the year, but warns that continued attacks could keep inflation pressures elevated.

Entities: Bank of Russia · Elvira Nabiullina · Rostov‑on‑Don fuel depot · Russian GDP · Russian fuel sector · Tyumen refinery · Ukrainian drone attacks · Yekaterinburg logistics centre · Yekaterinburg logistics facility

Claims

What the coverage asserts, and how well corroborated each claim is across sources.

[● 18 SOURCES] The Bank of Russia expects inflation of 6–7% in 2026. (Bank of Russia press release)
[● 18 SOURCES] The Bank of Russia lowered its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 0–1% (from 0.5–1.5%). (Bank of Russia press release)
[● 17 SOURCES] The Bank of Russia expects fuel‑production capacity to be gradually restored by the end of 2026. (Bank of Russia press release)
[● 18 SOURCES] Ukrainian drones struck a refinery in Tyumen, a logistics facility in Yekaterinburg and a fuel depot in Rostov‑on‑Don. (Bank of Russia press release)
[● 13 SOURCES] Fuel shortages were reported in several Russian regions in June 2026 after Ukrainian strikes on oil refineries. (Bank of Russia press release)
[● 18 SOURCES] The revisions are attributed to a sharp increase in fuel prices caused by Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries and logistics centres. (Bank of Russia press release)
[● 9 SOURCES] Earlier the Bank of Russia had forecast inflation of 4.5‑5.5% for 2026. (previous forecasts)
[● 16 SOURCES] The fourth‑quarter 2026 GDP growth projection was cut from 1‑2% to 0‑1.5% year‑on‑year. (Bank of Russia)
[● 7 SOURCES] Ukrainian drone attacks in June reduced Russia's gasoline production by about 25 %. (Reuters report cited by the Russian Central Bank)
[● 7 SOURCES] Fuel prices in Russia have risen sharply since mid‑May due to Ukrainian attacks on oil refineries. (Russian Central Bank analysis)
[● 7 SOURCES] Governor Elvira Nabiullina said a slowdown in demand contributed to the forecast downgrade. (Elvira Nabiullina)
[● 13 SOURCES] On 24 July the Russian Central Bank reduced its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 14 %. (Bank of Russia press release)