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[SITUATION] · [ACTIVE]

2 clusters · 45 sources · 16 days · First seen 18 days ago · Last updated 1 day ago

Categories: BUSINESS

Russia slowdown deepens; central bank cuts growth forecast

Entities: Elvira Nabiullina · Yekaterinburg logistics centre · Russian Federation · Russian fuel sector · Ukrainian drone attacks

Overview

In early July 2026 Russia’s economy showed a sharp slowdown, with a 40.5 % drop in tractor output and fuel prices rising sharply, prompting the Bank of Russia to revise its outlook to 0‑1 % GDP growth and 6‑7 % inflation while keeping the key rate at 14 %. By late July the bank reaffirmed those figures, citing a fuel‑price supply shock from Ukrainian drone attacks on a Tyumen refinery, a logistics centre in Yekaterinburg and a fuel depot in Rostov‑on‑Don.

On 25 July the bank tightened its projections further, cutting the 2026 GDP‑growth range to 0‑1 % (down from 0.5‑1.5 %) and reducing the fourth‑quarter growth estimate to 0‑1.5 % year‑on‑year, while raising the inflation forecast to 6‑7 % from an earlier 4.5‑5.5 % band. Governor Elvira Nabiullina reiterated that the ongoing attacks have forced temporary reductions in fuel‑production capacity, which is expected to be restored gradually by year‑end, but warned that any additional strikes could sustain inflationary pressures and depress domestic demand. The policy rate remains at 14 % as authorities monitor the evolving fuel‑price shock.

Claims

What the coverage asserts, and how well corroborated each claim is across sources.

[● 18 SOURCES] The Bank of Russia expects inflation of 6–7% in 2026. (The Bank of Russia expects inflation at 6–7% in 2026 due to sharply higher fuel prices.)
[● 18 SOURCES] The Bank of Russia lowered its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 0–1% (from 0.5–1.5%). (The Central Bank of Russia cut its 2026 GDP growth forecast to a range of 0‑1 % from the prior 0.5‑1.5 %.)
[● 18 SOURCES] The revisions are attributed to a sharp increase in fuel prices caused by Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries and logistics centres. (The forecast revisions are attributed to a sharp rise in fuel prices caused by Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries &)
[● 18 SOURCES] Ukrainian drones struck a refinery in Tyumen, a logistics facility in Yekaterinburg and a fuel depot in Rostov‑on‑Don. (Ukrainian drones hit a refinery in Tyumen, a logistics centre in Yekaterinburg and a fuel depot in Rostov‑on‑Don.)
[● 17 SOURCES] The fourth‑quarter 2026 GDP growth projection was cut from 1‑2% to 0‑1.5% year‑on‑year. (The Q4 2026 GDP growth forecast was lowered from 1‑2 % to 0‑1.5 % YoY.)
[● 17 SOURCES] The Bank of Russia expects fuel‑production capacity to be gradually restored by the end of 2026. (The bank expects fuel‑production capacity will be gradually restored by year‑end 2026.)
[● 16 SOURCES] Fuel shortages were reported in several Russian regions in June 2026 after Ukrainian strikes on oil refineries. (Fuel shortages were reported in several Russian regions in June 2026 following Ukrainian strikes on oil refineries.)
[● 13 SOURCES] Ukrainian drone attacks in June reduced Russia's gasoline production by about 25 %. (Ukrainian drone attacks in June cut Russian gasoline output by roughly 25 %.)
[● 9 SOURCES] Earlier the Bank of Russia had forecast inflation of 4.5‑5.5% for 2026. (previous forecasts)
[● 7 SOURCES] Governor Elvira Nabiullina said a slowdown in demand contributed to the forecast downgrade. (Elvira Nabiullina)

Timeline

1 day ago

[BUSINESS] 40 sources FAST-MOVING
Russian Central Bank cuts 2026 GDP growth forecast to zero, raises inflation outlook
Russia’s central bank raised its 2026 inflation outlook to 6‑7 % and cut the GDP growth forecast to 0‑1 %, citing fuel‑price shocks from Ukrainian drone attacks that caused regional shortages.
18 days ago

[BUSINESS] 5 sources
Russia's tractor output plummets as inflation fears surge
Russian tractor output fell 40.5% in early 2026 amid labour shortages and sanctions, while nearly half of citizens now expect faster price rises as fuel costs jump.

Sources

aksam.com.tr · alminuto.mx · apach57.fr · arabic.euronews.com · contextodedurango.com.mx · dartsnmore.com · dorzeczy.pl · ekonomist.com.tr · entrevue.fr · es.euronews.com · euronews.net · farmer.pl · fehmarn24.de · finans.mynet.com · finansgundem.com · focusonbusiness.be · fr.euronews.com · gr.euronews.com · gzt.com · halktv.com.tr · internethaber.com · it.euronews.com · karar.com · kibrisgazetesi.com · kibrisnethaber.com · kreiszeitung.de · leinetal24.de · m.haber7.com · merkur-online.de · milligazete.com.tr · novinky.cz · op-online.de · razydzisiaj.pl · sallinggroup.com · showbusiness.actualno.com · sitiosargentina.com.ar · skopje1.mk · telegrafi.com · tr.euronews.com · tz.de · upday.com · upreg.fr · wiadomosci.onet.pl · wiadomosci.wp.pl · yenicaggazetesi.com.tr

This summary has been updated 5 times: see revision history